Innovation in Africa's agriculture could increase carbon emmissions

Innovation in African agriculture could - unlike
other green revolutions - lead to more deforestation and
higher carbon emissions, researchers have warned.
Historically, better agricultural technology has protected
land and decreased carbon emissions in regions such as
Latin America and Asia, because improved yields lessen the
need to clear new areas for crops.
The impact in Africa would depend on whether global
markets become more integrated, the team from Indiana-
based Purdue University wrote in the online issue of the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this week.
"If the future global economy remains as fragmented as it
has been historically - a world of very distinct agricultural
markets - then a green revolution in Africa will lower global
carbon emissions. But if markets become more integrated,
faster agricultural innovation in Africa could raise global
carbon emissions in the coming decades," agricultural
economics professor Thomas Hertel said in a statement.
Under that scenario - where it is cheaper to grow more
crops in Africa - boosting agricultural productivity on the
continent from 2025 to 2050 could increase global cropland
by 1.8 million hectares (4.4 million acres) and global
carbon emissions by 267 million tonnes.
That is because Africa's lower yields would require more
land to be converted to grow crops than elsewhere in the
world, and that land would release relatively high levels of
carbon dioxide, the study said.
But the potential negative effects of an African green
revolution would diminish over time, and if sustained for
several decades, such a transformation would eventually
conserve land and decrease carbon emissions, especially if
yields improved quickly, the researchers said.
In the meantime, land with high stocks of carbon - like
tropical forests - should be protected from conversion for
farming, they argued.
"We need to prevent regions in Africa that are rich in carbon
and biodiversity from being cleared for agriculture to avoid
increasing emissions," Hertel said.
"Boosting yields brings many benefits, but increasing global
food supplies while minimising the environmental footprint
of agriculture remains a major challenge."