How can we feed 10bn people??

It will be even harder to feed the world in
2050, but African farmers could be key,
says Roger Williamson.
An alarming study has found that major crop
yields are increasing too slowly to meet future
food demands. With the latest UN projections
suggesting a world population of 9.6 billion by
2050 [1] and the population rising by more than
80 million a year — with the fastest rates in some
of the most populous African countries — how
will the human race feed itself?
In future, will we be talking about three to four
billion people in extreme poverty rather than the
current 'bottom billion'?
A recent, timely book, 10 Billion by Stephen
Emmott [2], paints a bleak picture. Emmott
examines technological fixes or changes in
behaviour or political will as potential solutions,
but says these are likely to fail.
This conclusion must be taken seriously. A key
part of his narrative is that there is simply not
enough land to feed the growing population —
more importantly, one with growing food needs.
What's left are cities, where you buy food (not
grow it); oceans, which are largely being
overfished; forests; and desert. Thus there are
only two real possibilities: somehow finding more
land to cultivate or improving yields from existing
cropland.
A video posted online earlier this month by the
ReCom programme — which aims to research
and communicate what works in foreign aid — of
the UN University-World Institute for
Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER),
based in Finland, provides a more hopeful
scenario for Africa.
In it, Ephraim Nkonya, a Tanzanian land
management specialist at the International Food
Policy Research Institute, makes the surprising
statement that Africa could become the world's
breadbasket.
His argument hinges around two interlinked
opportunities — that the yield gap for current and
maximum potential production for crops is
greatest in Sub-Saharan Africa, and that there is
potential for radically expanding food production
through increasing the area of land under
production. According to Nkonya, 90 per cent of
all land that could be brought under cultivation is
in Africa or Latin America.
Akio Hosono, of the Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute,
recently presented positive examples of the latter
at a UNU-WIDER conference. He highlighted the
use of Brazil's vast Cerrado region for soya
production. [3] JICA and the Brazilians are
exploring this model's applicability to
Mozambique. [4]
However, increasing crop yields by expanding
the area under cultivation often means
deforestation. Intensification of yield is the key.
Forecasts of having three to four billion people
living in absolute poverty, and strategies for
eradicating this problem, are questions for
science, but they are also more than that. Social
and economic issues of extreme inequality (for
example around access to land) and consumption
patterns (for example ensuring that resources for
food production are distributed equally) are also
vital elements to the mix.
Roger Williamson is an independent consultant
and visiting fellow at the Institute of Development
Studies at the University of Sussex, United
Kingdom.